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Speaking With Certainty

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It is long past time for an update on the Peak Oil story.

At one time about 15 to 20 years ago, several smart people in and out of the fossil fuel industry were quite certain that we had reached the point of “Peak Oil” – that we had exploited world oil deposits to the fullest extent and that we would see a dramatic decline in production. In addition, many predicted this would lead to massive negative disruptions in the economy and society. Some even predicted with certainty that we would soon be back in the “stone age” without liquid fossil fuels. With the benefit of hindsight, the predictions might seem rather extreme, but it was not that far-fetched based upon the data and technology at the time.

I took up the subject in the blog because of competing theories. About 15 years ago Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theorists were projecting ever increasing fossil fuel usage while Peak Oil theorists were predicting just about the opposite. Here are a few choice blog articles covering the dichotomy:

Yes Virginia, There is a Carbon Cycle

Peak Oil – A Busted Theory?

Hirsch Interview

Peak Oil – Still Peaking

Peak Oil theory still makes sense. It still seems like demand for oil could outstrip supply at some point. It is just that no one can say for certain when that will occur. The use of fracking technology has opened up very sizable new reserves of liquid hydrocarbons. Even with increasing demand (mostly due to China), it seems oil companies should be able to provide a stable supply for at least a few more years into the future.

One could say that AGW fuel expectations won the day. The Peak Oil theory fell flat (so far). Fossil fuel demand and production continues to increase dramatically. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have been on an inexorable rise and (mainly due to China) should continue for some time yet. This has led to another round of predictions  – which some assert with absolute certainty. Namely, that carbon dioxide levels will keep increasing for decades or even centuries and that the earth will keep getting hotter – no matter what.

Are AGW theorists missing something? What type of technology will be developed in the next 10 years that could revolutionize energy and/or pull carbon dioxide out of the air? What natural phenomena could put a brake on the warming even as carbon dioxide levels rise? Believe it or not, there are a couple of possibilities, which would be good for a future blog post.

The earth is very likely to warm in the next “few years” and carbon dioxide levels will rise for a “few years”, that seems guaranteed. When the time frame gets out to a decade or more, most bets are off when it comes to predicting non-linear systems like the atmosphere, technological progress, and human society. I would not speak with certainty at those time frames.

Meteorologist Justin Loew


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